What is EB-5 Backlog and How Will It Impact EB-5 Singapore Investors?

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The EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program has long been an attractive pathway for foreign nationals seeking permanent residency in the United States through investment. While the program offers a relatively straightforward route to a green card, it is not without complexities – one of the most significant being the EB-5 visa backlog.

This article unpacks what the EB-5 backlog is, how it comes about, and most importantly, how it could affect investors from countries like Singapore, where interest in EB-5 is steadily rising. Detailed explanation https://www.eb5brics.com/singapore/eb-5-visa. While Singapore has historically been unaffected by backlogs due to its lower demand, changing global patterns and new rules introduced in the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (RIA) may alter that landscape in the future.

Understanding the EB-5 Backlog

To comprehend how the EB-5 backlog arises, it’s important to first understand how the EB-5 visa program is structured.

1. The Basics of EB-5

Under the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, foreign nationals can obtain a U.S. green card by investing a minimum of:

• $800,000 in a Targeted Employment Area (TEA), or

• $1,050,000 in a non-TEA project,

while creating at least 10 full-time jobs for U.S. workers. In return, the investor, their spouse, and unmarried children under 21 can become U.S. permanent residents.

Each year, the U.S. government allocates about 10,000 EB-5 visas, with a 7% per-country cap – i.e., approximately 700 visas per country.

2. What is a Backlog?

A visa backlog in the EB-5 context occurs when the number of applicants from a particular country exceeds its annual visa cap. Because only 7% of the total visa pool is available per country, high-demand countries such as India, China, and Vietnam have historically experienced backlogs.

This backlog manifests in the Visa Bulletin published monthly by the U.S. Department of State. When demand exceeds supply, the final action date for a country is “retrogressed”  –  pushed back  –  meaning only investors with earlier priority dates (based on when they filed their I-526 petition) can proceed with green card issuance.

Key Drivers of EB-5 Backlogs

Several factors contribute to the EB-5 backlog:

• Country-Specific Demand: High-volume countries use up their quotas quickly.

• Derivative Applicants: Each EB-5 visa not only covers the primary investor but also their spouse and children. This inflates the number of total visa users per application.

• Slow USCIS Processing: Delays in adjudicating I-526 and I-829 petitions can cause visa spillovers and redistribution issues.

• Legislative Constraints: The statutory 10,000 visa limit has not been adjusted for family size or inflation, creating artificial scarcity.

Singapore and the EB-5 Program

Historically, Singapore has had a low to moderate demand for EB-5 visas. Many Singaporean investors are either citizens or permanent residents of a high-income, low-tax country with global mobility, so U.S. residency may not always be a pressing need. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in the EB-5 visa among:

• High-net-worth individuals seeking U.S. access for business or personal reasons.

• Parents are looking for better education opportunities for their children.

• Professionals seeking a long-term Plan B due to rising global instability.

Despite this, Singapore has never reached its 7% cap and has consistently had “Current” priority dates in the Visa Bulletin, allowing applicants to proceed through the immigration process without delays caused by a backlog.

But that could change.

How the EB-5 Backlog Could Affect Singapore Investors

While Singapore currently enjoys an advantageous position in the EB-5 landscape, several emerging trends could alter this status. Here’s how.

1. Global Surge in EB-5 Interest Post-2022

Following the passage of the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act in 2022, investor confidence rebounded after years of program uncertainty. The reauthorization included major reforms, including visa set-asides and increased oversight of regional centers. As a result, EB-5 demand surged globally, not just from China and India, but also from countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Singapore is increasingly part of this surge due to:

• Rising affluence among its citizens.

• Political uncertainty in neighboring regions.

• Strong education links to U.S. universities.

As the number of Singaporean applicants increases, they may eventually approach the 7% visa cap. If that happens, a backlog will follow, particularly for unreserved visa categories.

2. Impact of Derivatives on Visa Usage

Even if only 200 Singaporean families apply in a given year, the total number of visas consumed could exceed 600 due to family members included in each petition. A typical family of four uses four EB-5 visas  –  one for the investor, one for the spouse, and one for each child. Hence, a relatively small number of applications can still max out the quota.

This could eventually lead to regression for Singaporean investors, similar to what Chinese investors have been facing since 2015, and Indian investors since 2019.

3. Reserved Categories vs. Unreserved Backlogs

The RIA introduced visa set-aside categories, which reserve 32% of EB-5 visas annually for:

• Rural projects (20%)

• High-unemployment areas (10%)

• Infrastructure projects (2%)

For now, these reserved categories remain “Current” in the Visa Bulletin for all countries, including China and India. That makes them especially appealing to new investors from Singapore who want to hedge against future market fluctuations.

However, unreserved categories – the traditional EB-5 path – are beginning to show signs of stress due to legacy petitions and increasing demand. If Singapore reaches its cap in unreserved categories, investors who don’t apply through a reserved path may be stuck in long wait times.

4. Children Aging Out

One of the most concerning consequences of a visa backlog is the “aging out” of dependent children. Under U.S. immigration law, a child must be under 21 years of age (at the time of green card issuance) to qualify as a derivative. Delays due to backlogs can result in a child becoming ineligible, leading to separation or requiring separate immigration planning.

Singaporean investors often apply with children nearing college age. A backlog could jeopardize their ability to benefit from in-state tuition or green card rights. This makes early filing – and possibly using set-aside categories – crucial for families.

Investors from Singapore have the option of looking at the H1B1 visa – learn more about it here.. However, this is restricted only to citizens. Further, the applicant’s country of origin may impact the prospects of getting the green card. 

5. Exit Route Planning: Delays May Impact Liquidity

Many EB-5 investments are structured with 5–7 year exit horizons. If an investor faces a backlog and delays in receiving their conditional or permanent green card, their capital may remain locked in the EB-5 project longer than expected. This can create liquidity issues for Singaporean investors who need access to funds for other purposes, such as reinvestment, education, or family planning.

Strategic Tips for Singaporean Investors

If you’re a Singapore-based investor considering EB-5, the following strategies can help mitigate potential backlog risks:

1. Invest Early and Monitor Visa Bulletins

Starting the process early provides a cushion against delays. Filing before your country reaches the cap may secure your place in a less congested queue.

2. Choose Set-Aside Projects

Opt for rural or high-unemployment TEA projects to access reserved visa categories. These categories are still current and offer a better chance of bypassing any future country-specific retrogression.

3. Work with Experienced Advisors

Source of funds documentation, project selection, and timing strategy are critical in an evolving EB-5 landscape. A licensed immigration attorney and a qualified financial advisor familiar with EB-5 can provide tailored advice.

4. Plan for Child Aging-Out Risks

If your children are close to 21, act swiftly. There may also be legal strategies under the Child Status Protection Act (CSPA) to freeze a child’s age, but these are only effective under certain conditions.

5. Understand Reinvestment Risks

Backlogs could delay your ability to get repaid. Choose projects with clear reinvestment clauses and exit strategies that align with longer timelines.

Conclusion: Backlog May Not Be Immediate, But It’s Inevitable

For now, Singapore is in a favorable position when it comes to EB-5. With current priority dates, no retrogression, and ample project choices, Singaporean investors enjoy flexibility that investors from other high-demand countries do not. However, this window may not last.

As EB-5 gains traction in Southeast Asia and more Singaporean families apply, visa demand may rise to the point of triggering country caps and backlogs. By understanding the mechanics of the EB-5 backlog today, Singaporean investors can make better-informed decisions and future-proof their immigration plans.

For those who act early, particularly through reserved categories, EB-5 remains one of the most powerful tools for achieving U.S. residency – before the lines start forming.